Spice Tele - Cup & Handle Pattern

Initiate above 65 with stop loss of 60.90 for target of 75.

Readers can draw their own conclusion about the promise and potential.


Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I am having position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

Psychological guidelines to enhance Trading Confidence

1. Physical fitness has a great impact on trading. Physiology is the path to brilliance. An fit & efficient body will always make you feel better& more you feel better its more likely you will use your skills to get astonishing results.

2. Visualization as a successful trader. Visualize your past successful trades & the feeling of joy thereafter.

3. Keep negative thoughts & fear out of your mind. Understand your trade & study as much as you can on it. Remove ignorance & fear will vanish by itself.

4. Write down your strong points & review them regularly to create a successful self-image. Identify your weakness & work on it. Discipline yourself not to repeat the mistake second time. Doing mistakes is not a problem but repeating same mistake; surely is.

5. Concentration on the task is the necessity. Never underestimate the power of Concentration. Try improving your concentration level & check the results.

6. Irrespective of profit or loss try to maintain positive approach & a positive body language. Never discuss in public about your loss or bad luck.

7. Make your trading plan & stick to it for each trading day & for each trade. Every successful implementation of your plan will boost your confidence.

8. Understand thyself. Study your behavior patterns, risk appetite, neurology & trade accordingly. A person with kinesthetic neurology mode should not go for long term trades as he will surely run out of patience.

9. Set a goal & divide it into smaller logical steps. The real problem of procrastination is having impotent goals.

10. Study a successful trader & try to elicit his strategy. Try to get as much information about them & their psychology. Stock Market is more about Mass Psychology than price or value.

11. Gratitude – Always express gratitude & keep your conscience clear. A conflict internally will generate a poor external result.

Option - Put/Call Ratio (PCR) indicator

In our quest to update our knowledge in stock market trading & in turn to maximize our profits, we will study yet another tool to gauge the future trend.

After understanding Open Interest(OI), it’s the turn of Put/Call Ratio indicator.

Often Options are used by large players to hedge their positions & small investors used them to for their Low Risk High Return principles. Some of the experience trades use different strategies using options; like straddle, strangle for arbitrage returns. Ironically, on records 90% of options expire in loss. Well, is it because of the same principle for which small investors invest in it – low risk or because of the human tendency of “UMEED PE DUNIYA KAYAM HAI”. There are more psychological reason then technical for it which are out of the scope of this article & can be discussed some times ahead.

Options; apart from other reason; can be watched as a very effective predictive tool for the market trend.
This PCR indicator serves as a contrarians tool for market direction. PCR is basically an ratio of total number of PUT options traded against total number of CALL options per day basis. Higher ratio indicates more PUT options traded than CALL & vice versa.

As mentioned earlier, it’s a contrarian’s tool; so when the ratio is highest it’s the time to start bottom fishing & when the ratio is lowest its better to cash in on your profits.

Observe the PCR line & Nifty on a same scope & you will be amazed by the predictive power of this indicator.

As always, it goes without saying that other indicators need to be observed along with PCR for further confirmation & proper timing. Initiating action without proper understanding of Options & other indicators can lead to wrong trading decisions.

Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Teledata - good Risk/ Reward Ratio

Teledata Info had a sharp run up from Rs.10 to Rs.96/- & then it was in consolidation mode between 50 - 70 levels. Now there seems to be a good Fibonacci support around 58 which for last few days have hold well. More over there is a good support right below it around 52 where stock has made double bottom. Break above 73 can take stock to 81+.
Strict Stop loss of 51 is must as fundamentals of Teledata are still debated in market circles. We necessarily not subscribe to market ideas about the fundamentals of stock & above are the technical perspective.




Readers can draw their own conclusion about the promise and potential.


Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I may have position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

3I Infotech - Good Upside Possible

3i-Infotech, the fourth largest Indian software company has largely focused its attention on the domestic market.
3i has rather low presence in the US market which in current scenario is been proved to be boon in disguise as it is not highly vulnerable to rupee appreciation.
It generates revenues from India, Europe, US , Middle East and Africa & has more concentration in the Indian market. The domestic revenue of the company is almost 35% of its total revenues.
3i also have diversified products in the kitty for various sectors across the globe.








Technical Analysis:

There is a positive divergence between price & MACD as shown in chart below, which indicates underlying bullishness in the script.

Readers can draw their own conclusion about the promise and potential.


Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I may have position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

Open Interest - Tool to Gauge the Future trend

The term “open interest” of a futures contract refers to the number of outstanding positions either long or short that are not squared off.

Basic concept of derivatives trading is that the sum of it results is always zero. That means for every outstanding long position there exist a corresponding short position in the same month futures contract & vice versa.


By gauging open interest and volume with technical indicators can provide important hindsight in underlying trend prevailing in the market. Prices increasing with increase in both open interest and volumes, indicates bullishness. Similarly prices decreasing with an increase in open interest and volumes, indicates bearishness. If both the open interest and volumes are decreasing with increase/decrease in prices, it signals a reversal of the prevailing trend.

A steady OI typically indicates a possible market top/ bottom, succeeding with trend reversal.

It is very important to use Technical indicators along with the OI & Volume analysis.

Gujarat State Financial Corporation - IFCI AGAIN?

Gujarat State Financial Corporation ( 532160 )

A public sector; finance term lending institution of Gujarat with just 2% of equity with public can be IFCI in making.

Its equity is 93 crores & the net asset is Rs 419 crores with 89114000 of shares (almost 9 crores ) that comes out to Rs.46/ share. Though this company is in red, so was IFCI a year back. At current value of Rs.9/- + , it has a bright potential with a good Risk/Reward ratio.

Almost shares of all projects of Gujarat Government have been issued at par to this company. The investment of 419 crores at current valuation turns out to be around 970 crores.

With Gujarat emerging as a favorite destination for investors as per the RBI data & the way this state is moving forwards with reforms, this financial company of the state cannot be left out.
Unlike other disinvestment process & with Gujarat Government efforts to march ahead on disinvestment, GS Fin Corp can be a dark horse within short span. Remember no body was ready to touch IFCI at Rs.10/- & now ….. !

Readers can draw their own conclusion about the promise and potential.


Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I may have position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

Very Imp International News & NFCL

International News which can affect the course of Indian Market too.
The unidentified investor has bought a total of 245,000 put options on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 index of 2,800 strike price of September series.
The trade will be profitable only when the market drops almost 40% before the expiry; else it’s a loss of over $1 billion J
The options expire on Sept. 21.

I would like to thanks some of my friends who have express the gratitude & have called to share the joy of there profit earned through the information on this blog. Specially two calls; Nagarjuna Fertilizer (dated 22 May 07) & GOLD ( dated 16th August)

Nagarjuna has almost doubled in three months & Gold has moved North from 880(16th August) to 930(10 september 07).


In my post of 22 may on Nagarjuna fertilizer(NFCL), I expected it to reach Rs.40 mark in a year. But only in span of three months it has doubled & is trading above the 40 level mark.

Now from this level the question arises whether the price is justified after the Reliance denial of taking a stake in it. So let’s recheck from fresh, discounting the Reliance story.


As stated in previous post, this company is located at strategic place of Kakinda port, which incidentally is the place where Reliance & others have found huge oil & gas supply. Natural Gas is the raw material for NFCL & the proximity to such a gas rich location will definitely boost the bottom line as transportation cost will be reduced significantly.

The land bank they are having at this location can easily fetch them 7000+ crore, this comes out to be almost Rs.155/ per share.

They are effectively using new media & internet be developing a portal for farmer which is getting popular in south.

The company has two loss making subsidiaries Nagarjuna Power Corporation in Mangalore & Nagarjuna Oil Corporation in TN which they are planning to sale the stake.

If Government goes on with the decontrolling of Urea & with international prices of Urea moving southward, we can expect better times for NFCL. Though when this decontrol plan will be implemented is anybody’s guess :-)

Overall the story is strong & the stock deserve quite a good attention.

Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I may have position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

NIFTY Support Levels, Forex & Gold ETF

With Nifty cash breaking 4225 level convincingly its all depend on the next two levels of 4100 & 3970 for the Bull Run to sustain. Those who had remained focused on the forex update would have got the hint when Dollar $ was rising steadily & now it has crossed 41 level. This indicates perhaps FIIs are taking money out of India & might not return in hurry. Holding Long positions without proper stop loss is asking for trouble. Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Daily chart

Now with such a mayhem on the Dalal street, the best hedge will be buying Gold. With introduction of Gold ETF, concern of storing physical gold is also been taken care of. Gold can be preferable investment as the money flowing out of equity needs to be parked somewhere & what better than gold.
My views of buying gold is not influenced by the theory of Saturn entering the Leo sign, as I am surely not the best person to know about it. Gold investment advice is being given by some of the great astrologers who are being approached even by the top notch US fund Managers.
My views are totally based on logical reasoning & facts about global economy. Where will the Oil Rich Countries will put their money into when equity is nose diving?

Readers should draw their own conclusion & take appropriate action.


Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks/ commodity for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Stock ideas for 14th August 2007

As mention in previous post, Nifty took support at 4225 -4235 zone & bounce back. Nifty cash can touch 4500. Keep an eye on Re/$ equation & update your forex knowledge to get an idea where market can heed in coming days.

Watch

1.) Birla corp(277.2) : Can be bought with stop loss of 269 for target of 290
2.) PFC(182) : stop loss of 177 for target of 190
3.) Dr.Reddy(634) looks good fro target of 660+
4.) Suzlon(1302) looks good for target of 1350
5.) SRF(138) can touch 145.

Above is a probability & not prediction.
Readers should draw their own conclusion & take appropriate action.


Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Nifty - Fibonacci Support Level

Observing Nifty chart on daily & weekly basis, we understand there is a strong support at 4225 -4235 level. Once broken next strong support can be 3970 -3980. So act accordingly & remember sometimes Discretion is better part of Valor

Above is Nifty on daily chart, wathc support at 4226, 4095 & 3965

Above is Nifty on weekly chart, wathc support at 4232, 4100 & 3970

Interesting it may sound, in History of Dow Jones, years ending in "7" have historically reached top and then brusquely started considerable sell-offs which have triggered bear cycle. Importantly mostly this selling began in July - August!!

Take Care. God Bless you All.

Disclosure: As on no short position in Nifty for myself/ family members / friends.

Pleasecheck the Disclaimer on this blog.

Forex - Window to Financial Abundance

Introduction to the Forex Market

The Forex is the abbreviation for Foreign Currency Exchange Market. "Foreign Exchange" is actually trading of one currency against another, called as pairs. The most traded pair is as expected, EUR/USD & USD/JPY, now famous for Yen Carry trade. The value of each country's economy is reflected in its currency, so trading FX is like trading the worth of countries.

There are more than 5000 International Banks and many small and large traders who participate in it. Forex (FX) with a daily average turnover of around US$ 4 trillion, comparing this with less than $10 billion in the U.S stock markets; its the leading financial market in the world.

Established in 1971, the Forex market is a cash inter-bank or inter-dealer market when floating exchange rates began to trade. Traders in Forex can be categories into; Central & Commercial banks, Financial Institutions & Brokerage Houses, Corporate, & Individual home-based traders. Trading by individuals and organizations accounts for up to a 25% of volume. Rest includes trading by major corporations and central banks for hedging against currency price movements or to convert profits. With advent of technology, the currency trading has expanded from floors to Desktop & laptops. The Internet has facilitated individuals in an efficient low cost manner to trade next to the biggest banks in the world, with almost same pricing and execution.

This is a round the clock market starting from Sunday 5:00 PM to Friday 5:00PM. Day begins from Sydney and moves around the globe. So traders can take position responding to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at any time of the day in real time, thus increasing the scope of their profit.

Almost 85% of transactions involve trading of the 7 "Major" currencies, which include the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar. The best trading opportunities for traders are with the pair between the dollar and the four major currencies Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.

The Forex is an OTC (Over The Counter) market & can be traded similar to equities using a fundamental and technical analysis.

Above article is for information purpose & should not be treated as an advice or advertisement for Forex Trading.

Article is copy protected & should not be duplicated for any reasons.

Nifty – SROC Retracement till Neckline of H&S pattern

The SROC indicator for Nifty has retraced to the neckline of Head & shoulder pattern formed on it.
We all have observed the fall in Nifty when the neckline was broken & then the recent up move.
As per the pattern definition, IF the indicator moves down from here then there is a great chance of big fall. The rise above the Neckline will force Bears to cut short & Nifty ca witness new high.
Normally Bears waits for this retracement till neckline for shorting again. Watch out as it coincides with the F&O expiry.


Chart is drawn using closing rate of Nifty.

Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Indian Rupee effect on Equity Market

Due to big Public offer of DLF, ICICI Bank & Vishal Retail, there was surge of Foreign funds in India. This in turn has strengthen Indian currency & very likely it will soon break the level of Rs.40/- against USD. Still some more big public issues are lined up. Watch out if you are long on USD against Indian Rupees.

In case of equity trader, using this benchmark work out which sectors will be benefited & which will be hit. Work out your plans properly before tornado hits you. Think & will get your answer what lies ahead in July series.

Take good care of yourself, your family & your money. Think hard, Think best & world is yours.

Switching from Equity Market to Forex

Equity markets can be used as a key indicator for movement in the Forex market. With latest technology, investing in global equity markets has become far more feasible. A Bull market in any part of the world dish out a perfect opportunity for an investor of any geographic location. This results in a strong correlation between a country's equity markets and its currency; as rising market brings more foreign investment & thus buying of local currency pushing it northward. Perfect Example is to be seen in respect of Indian Equity Market & Indian Rupee.

Technical Indicator forming Head & Shoulder Pattern

S-ROC (Rate of Change) Indicator is forming Head & shoulder pattern in Nifty on daily chart.

Head & shoulde patern is considered to be the most reliable pattern in Technical Analysis. One needs to check for the indicator to break the neck line for further confirmation.


Please check the Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Nagarjuna fertilizer - Re-Rating Candidate

Biggest Advantage to this urea manufacturing company in kakinada port is its proximity to KG Basin & all the pipe lines has to go through this area.
Till date naphtha and APM gas are being used as raw material, which are considerably expensive. Also due to Government subsidy, Nagarjuna fertilizer is facing a loss of almost 25 crores. More ever the company has two loss making subsidiaries Nagarjuna Power Corporation in Mangalore & Nagarjuna Oil Corporation in TN which is affecting the balance sheet drastically.

Raise of hopes are being seen in this counter, as company has appealed for permission for using gas as raw source instead of the other two expensive alternatives. Also Reliance has proposed a long term contract for gas supply. Only hiccup is both the things require Government permission.
The company is also planning to sale the stake in the loss making companies to the biggies of the Indian Industries, Reliance & TATA.

All this above factors & the interest shown by the likes of Big R – a Fundamental Bull, can change the equations for this counter. For years, Nagarjuna Fertilizer was languishing below 20 & now maybe in a year it can double from here.
So do watch this re-rating candidate as it has moved out of his band with a bang.

Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I may have position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

South East Asia Marine - Value Pick

The Company is engaged in the Business of operation of multi support for underwater/sub sea engineering services, deep sea diving, inspection of underwater structures, repairs and maintenance of offshore platforms fire fighting services and rescue operations.

SEAMEC has three of the five MSVs owned by Indian companies. The other two belong to ONGC. SEAMEC recently owned Oceanic Princess in June 2006.

Technip, a French company is the parent company of SEAMEC, holding 78% in it. Basically Technip belongs to CSO group, a global player in sub-sea engineering and has complete supremacy of construction services in deep-sea underwater pipeline business in the world for the leading oil and gas companies. This has given an edge to SEAMEC over other Indian peers.


Share holding Pattern

Promoters - 78.24%
Institutional Investor - 6.5 %
Other investor – 6.5%
Public – 10.3 %

Mutual fund Holdings this script

Sundaram BNP Paribas Select Midcap

Reliance Monthly Income Plan - Growth

Birla Sun Life

Kotak MNC


A debt free company With EPS of 17 & Net profit of 59 crores on a small equity of 34 crores.

Stock is trading at just 6 x its estimated 07 Earnings. Stock is hugely underpriced and offers good scope for sharp appreciation. Comparing to its peer, Shivvani trades at 46 X , Alphageo at 18 X.
SEAMEC is worth much more than what its trading at(188). The fair price can be at least Rs.250/-

Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I may have position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

Market Hints

Market Hint (M-HINT)

Watch Micro Technologies. Goldy has taken a stake of 8% in it from the open market. Chances of going up aggressively.

Leading Brokerage House has given target of 250/- for GDL

Strong Bull is all set to take MTNL to new highs.

SRF is likely to gain substantially from the sale of carbon credits.
Also at current market price, the share price is at discount in compare to the industry average P/E. The script seems to have a good risk reward ratio & can be a good rewarding trade.


Above are market hints & I don’t necessarily subscribe to it. Please confirm it at your end before taking any action.

Please check the Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

IFCI - True Worth - A probability?

IFCI total equity is 63.8 crores of shares outstanding. It's Post Tax Profit for 06-07 is Rs.898 crores or about Rs.14 per share.
Almost entire Non Performing Assets (NPA) or Loans of about Rs.6000 crores (Rs.94 per share) has been fully provided for. Its NET WORTH has turned positive. Its actual business of corporate lending has resumed, granting fresh advance of Rs.1000 crores and additional Rs.2500 crores will be sanctioned this year.

IFCI's earlier major lending had been to Steel and Textile sector both of whom are riding high on the back of higher steel prices and higher real estate prices for their land holdings. Most investments in corporate were made at bottom prices and have zoomed several times. For example, it bought LIC Housing Finance (over 2 Million shares) and UTI Bank below Rs.20 against current market price of Rs.155 and Rs.470 per share. Because, the investments are generally valued at Cost price or Market price, whichever lower, the gains or earning gets understated several times. New taking over institution will adopt more realistic model for earning reporting.

Presuming that regular EPS (from Interest earning) will be in the region of Rs.8 per share, unrealized gains on BSE holding at about Rs.650 crores (Rs.10 per share), the potential gains on ICRA sale, the EPS will zoom to over Rs.30 per share.

Further, it is normal practice that the Bank or FI's bad debts generally get realized at about 65% of outstanding value. It is safe to guess that out of Rs 6000 crores of bad debts fully provided for, it is likely that they would realize about Rs 3900 crores or massive Rs 61 per share. This will get unlocked over next 3 years (because limitation period runs for just 3 years)

In all, the EPS will consistently be over Rs.35 per share (including special gains) for next 3 years. Considering potential PE ratio of just 10 times, the stock could go over Rs.300 in just under one year time. Every quarter will give massive boost.

It may come to Dividend payment by next year. IFCI board has passed resolution to attract foreign strategic partner to give stake up to 74%. If some foreign brokerage takes over this institution, the PE rating will increase to 18 times, which translate stock prices to 500 or more.

As per latest development, 8 foreign institutions have expressed interest to take 51% equity or more. If such things do happen, there has to be public offer for remaining 49% or 26% as the case may be, under existing takeover rules.
In all probability, the take over price could shape into Rs.80 to Rs.120 per share.

If some foreign brokerage like Lehman Bros takes over, the valuation will be higher as above. If it is taken over by some foreign banks like Citicorp, then valuation will be lower, because brokerage firms usually boost the stock prices of their holding by feeding the market with good news in constant stream. Banks do not. So, if some brokerage like Lehman Bros takes over, stock could go to over Rs.500 and if taken over by Citicorp or its ilk, the valuation will come down to modest Rs.250 to Rs.300


Note: Special Thanks to my friend who have contributed the above details.


Together We Prosper.


Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I may have position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

IFCI - Once Again

Market Hint (M-HINT) - IFCI can perform shortly going beyond 50 plus in couple of trading sessions as IFCI is planning to sell 10% stake to a leading global bank around Rs.65 per share.

Please confirm at your end before taking any action.


Does IFCI with such a fabulous turnaround result worth only Rs.65?
One of our friend has came out with details which can reveal the probable price of IFCI.
Will post it soon. Stay Tuned.

Together We Prosper.


Please go through Disclaimer on this blog.

Disclosure: I am having position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

IDBI – Peek into Next Multi Bagger

History of IDBI


IDBI was established in 1964 as a wholly owned subsidiary of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In 1976, ownership was transferred to Government of India (GoI) & in 1995, GOI disinvested 18 % of its stake through IPO.

IDBI is a largest DFI in India. It has played an important role in providing project financing & are among largest debt issuers in domestic markets.
It has strong brands created with over more than 5 million investors. Pioneered capital market development by setting up National Stock Exchange – an electronic Stock Exchange, NSDL – a Securities Depository, CARE – a Rating Agency, SHCIL – a Depository, etc.

Some Fact about IDBI


IDBI is holding following investments
25% stake in NSDL ( 20 lac shares)
Majority stake in SIDBI
17% stake in NSE
18% stake in Stockholding Corporation ( 38 lac shares )
28% stake in IFCI?( 18 cr shares)


According to sources, Fin min has issued a LOI to IDBI to sell 15%
stake in NSDL, majority holding in SIDBI, at least 10% from NSE and
entire 18% in Stockholding Corporation to raise sizable funds to meet the
growing requirement of infrastructure requirement.


a.) NSE stake is now openly valued at Rs.2400 crs i.e. Rs.35 per share

b.) NSDL is valued at Rs.800 crs on rough estimates and 15% dilution could mean Rs.110 crs in the hands of IDBI i.e Rs.1.50 per share


c.) 38 lac shares of Stock holding @ Rs.1400 works out to Rs.500 crs in the hands of IDBI. Rs.7 per share

d.) 18 cr shares of IFCI could fetch at least 540 crs to IDBI which is around Rs.7.5 per share


Totaling all this works out to Rs.51 per share whereas there is cash reserve of Rs.30 plus/share in the Balance Sheet. It means IDBI is available at Rs.10 per share minus cost of investments and life insurance biz coming into.


Public holding is around 14% whereas FII holding is nearly 13% so more scope for hiking it IFCI's way.


So it’s for anyone guess, the Valuations per share for the largest Industrial Financial Institution.


Note: Special Thanks to my friends who have contributed the above details.


Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Gold ETF - Secure way of accumulating Gold

ETF are basically a passively managed fund similar to Index Funds which tracks benchmark index. They can be traded like stocks.

Gold ETF are open ended fund through which investor can invest in gold without taking physical delivery. The fund tracks prices of gold.
The best part of it is one can do intra day trade on it which is not possible for regular mutual fund units. They are cheapest, easiest & provide more tax benefits than other funds.


With Security as a prime concern & Bank lockers difficult to get, Gold ETF offers a more safe way of stocking gold in a form of Demat. It’s a more practical investment since it offers easy liquidity & a security.

Since every commodity & equity has its own cyclical demand, one needs to understand it properly for a prudent decision to invest.


Disclaimer & Disclosure as regular from previous posts.

MTNL - GOLD ETF looks Good for Investment

As investor can accumulate yellow metal now in a secure Demat form, they should also look into MTNL script for the same process.
MTNL, the PSU Telecom giant is not only just a telecom company but also a big real estate owner in India’s two major metros.
So buying can be done in MTNL on every panic fall. MTNL has a strong support at 125.

P.S. : those who have watched market on Friday might have noticed IFCI doing Great Indian Rope Trick. For most part of the day IFCI was languishing around 38 level & in last 35 minutes just flied away.
Does it remind us of Dhoni’s glorious past of hitting all over in slog overs?
Can Dhoni repeat his feats again?
Can IFCI continue to do these tricks in days to come?



Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Few stocks for very short period

Some stocks are looking good for extremely short period of 2-3 days.
Stocks like

a.) Dabur
b.) RNRL
c.) IFCI - Do i need to write anything for this stock after so much have been discussed about it.
d.) IDBI - Same old story good till 91.
e.) Birla Corp / Birla Jute

Carrying any positions beyond week end can be inviting for trouble. Try to stay in cash as much as possible.


Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

IFCI & Important Events scheduled for this Friday

IFCI looking strong for the next move to 43-45 band.
IDBI has achieved our target of 86.
RNRL has already moved above its resistance of 24.50 & can touch 29 & there is a high probability that all this can happen this week itself.
Next Week might be something different.


On Friday 27th April, there are two major events lined up.
a.) Bank of Japan will announce its six monthly economic data.
b.) US GDP price index to be declared.

Both these events have enough power to affect the course of market substantially.




Disclosure: I am having position in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends.

Time for Portfolio Churning

On Monday Nifty managed to cross the most important resistance of 3975 with a big leap. Now this resistance has become a good support. Check out how exactly Nifty got support at 3975 (Tuesdays Low) & saved the day.
Well we need to see Nifty holding on this support & move up.
At least till April Expiry, there is really no danger of a great fall.

Our IDBI almost meet our second target. Will IFCI start its next & probably its final move tomorrow? Let’s watch.

Nifty - Levels for Next Move using Candlestick & Fibonacci

Taking from last post, Warning Bell did ring & there was a fall on Thursday which was arrested today by Infosys result. Nifty bounced & bounced high.

In Weekly chart, Candlestick Hammer was followed by a big bullish Candle signaling more upside. So far So good, What Next ?

Now the story begins………..

Using Fibonacci levels on daily charts, Nifty can face resistance at 3935 -3945 zone. The graph displays how at each Fibonacci Levels Nifty has faltered first & then moved ahead. Expecting to continue the trend, we can expect a correction or sideway move on Monday from this level.


NIFTY WEEKLY



On Weekly chart of Nifty, 61.8% retracement is at 3975 level. So, Nifty next resistance if 39345 is overcomes will be 3975, & it will be really though to break this level. Only a very good Q4 results can take Nifty above this level.




Now for the larger picture



Watch 3551 + level (50% Retracement) , how it has saved Nifty thrice. Now we are exactly at 3915, moving & sustaining above it will be good for Nifty. Most Importantly, 3388 level is still not tested. Will Nifty kiss this level & when?

MAY may answer :-) No PUN intended

Taking a leaf out of all this; We derive following Nifty levels to be watched carefully.

Upward - 3935 , 3945 , 3975


Downward – 3862 , 3786 , 3761, 3551 & 3388



Disclosure: No positions in Nifty for myself & family members.

Nifty - Candlestick Hanging Man on Daily chart

Nifty has formed Doji yesterday on Daily chart & is followed by Hanging Man pattern in Candlestick Formulation. This sounds warning bell.

Though as per Monday's post, weekly chart of Nifty Hammer has been followed by a big white candle, we need to wait till this week end for confiormation.

As of now, Nifty is bit weak & its better to

hold you long positions with strict stop loss. Infy result is round the corner.

Take Care. God Bless You all.

IDBI - Big Brother

After IFCI, now its turn of big Brother IDBI to move. Please watch it closely.
Technically also, it looks good. Short term Target can be 82 & 86
More details in next post.





Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Candlestick – Hammer pattern on chart.

Nifty has a bullish Hammer pattern on the weekly chart. According to Candlestick Interpretation, there seems to be a good up move from here.
The hammer formed after a long decline is a reversal bullish pattern. Also it can be a good bottom or support levels. The low of the day a long lower shadow implies that sellers push prices lower during the day. However, the strong close indicates that buyers regained their force successfully. While this reason is enough to take action, it requires further bullish confirmation.

Nifty can touch 4000 in this phase.

But will it sustain that is the million dollar question.

The low of the hammer shows that plenty of sellers remain. Further buying preferably on increasing volume is required for confirmation. Such confirmation could come from a long white candlestick. Hammers are similar to selling bottom and hugh volume can strengthen the power of the reversal.

IFCI – Ready to Take Off?

According to market sources, IFCI stock is being placed at Rs:45/- to Citi grp. Some guess are that offer may be at 65 also.
Is that the reason why IFCI touched 35.50 yesterday?

Hmmmm. Someone out there knows too much about this counter.

Please take your own decisions as there is no confirmation from either parties.

Nifty Weekly Chart shows Candlestick Hammer Pattern. What does this mean?

Will share the interpretation in next post very soon. Do come back again.


Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

IFCI - A Term lending organization

According to a reliable source

“By third quarter of 2006, IFCI had a net profit of Rs 229 crore. In the fourth quarter, by divesting its entire stake in ICRA for about Rs 30 crore & 7 % stake in the National Stock Exchange for Rs 800 crore, the company has almost turned in Black. Add to this, NPA of Rs 200 crore has been recovered recently. Summing it up, Net profit might be more than Rs 1,000 crore in 2006-07.”

Further, IFCI will be selling the assets of Hitech Electro Thermics & Hydro Power Ltd. All these will materialize in the early part of 2007-08. It has been learned from a market source that IFCI has additional real estates of worth Rs 800 crore.




Disclosure: I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Nifty - Dead Cat Bounce?

As expected & expressed in last blog, Nifty bounce backed.
Now we have to decide to stay or exit. What happens next?
Buy only if you are convinced; else dump the shares to buy them again 10% below shortly.

Will Nifty touch 3250?

Why Not. A dangerous Game is about to begin, or already in play?

NIFTY - Air Ambulance Service Required

Traders who are holding from the sky high level of 14000+ , might now require Air Ambulance service very shortly if they still hold on to their stocks.
It is very necessary to act thyself. Be what you are. Traders trying to pose as long term investors should act as a traders only & with strict discipline should cut their long positions or else you are trying to hold a falling knife.

As expected, Nifty crashed from the higher level & the speculative traders are caught in margin pressure. Time & again, this things happen & we name them bloody Monday, Tuesday or Friday. Still we continue the same thing, hurting our self & our dear ones.
Technical Recovery might be on the cards tomorrow, overall picture is very dim. Global clues are also not heartening. Try to use any upside , if any, for exiting your longs, at least partially.

Please take care of yourself & your Dear Ones. Play within your limits.
God Bless You All.

Diclosure : I dont have any short position in market for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

IFCI - MUTUAL FUND

Friends,

IFCI also has IDFC & PTC in its portfolio. The holding of the company mainly comprises of equities from sectors like steel,cement, Refineries, power & infrastructure stocks. All this sectors have turned around & doing comapritively quite well.
Now this are some more reasons to buy IFCI at every fall.

Cheers

Disclosure : I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Nifty Year End - Dumping

today being the last trading day in cash market & todays trades shall be settled in this financial year. All trades from tomorrow onwards shall be settled in the next financial year.

So guys last day of dumping in progress. From tomorrow we might see recovery.
This is probability & not prediction.

IFCI - Long Term Pick

IFCI - A Dark Horse


IFCI Ltd has clarified that the Company has filed recovery suit in DRT, Delhi, which has issued a 'sale proclamation'. Accordingly, sale notice was issued in the leading daily in November, 2006. However, the sale of land and assets has not yet materialized.
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IFCI has called for bids for its 750 acres land at Sultanpur. It has fixed the lower price to Rs. 250 crs. As per the industry sources, minimum worth of the land will be in range of Rs. 800 crs to Rs 2000 crs, & DLF is bidder.

Also NSE has a additional stake of 5% in NSE & are planning to offload as per the rumors going on Dalal Street, Though management has denied it.

IFCI Ltd has also informed BSE that it has decided to sell its equity holding of 21% along with Specified undertaking of UTI (SUUTI)'s holding of 8% in ICRA through an IPO.

IFCI has investment of almost 1000 Cr. at market value & also has stake in companies like DFHI, OTCEI, SHCIL & others.

Summing up, this will fetch IFCI approximately Rs. 4000 crs which will boost the net worth into positive to the tune of Rs 2500 crs. This in turn will make book value at Rs 40 per share & EPS for 06-07 can be above Rs 50 per share.


Along with this, as per the latest development,

IFCI Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on March 22, 2007, has decided to appoint an Advisor, Ernst & Young, for advising the company, inter alia, on the induction of a strategic investor in the Company.
Content Provided by Asian CERC

Considering all this facts & figures, IFCI can easily cross Rs.50/-
Technically it has hurdle in the range of Rs.32- Rs.35.

For Long Term Theory Lovers, considering all above facts & the current development regarding strategic Investor, the valuation is mouth watering, though it is near 52 weeks high.

Disclosure : I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.

Blood Bath to be continued?

As expected Nifty tanks again & with style. Two of my Good friends have already hinted this fallway ahead on saturday, because of different reasons. Since i was waiting for their consent to post their messages on my blog, i was not able to share this information with you before hand. Though still i am waiting for their approval, i cannot hold back myself seeing the plight of investors & carnage inthe market.
So here goes the messages.

Nifty is in long term bearish channel and 4th wave is in process which will get over soon....and 5th wave of down will start..

It is suggested that at high or near to upper band of channel ....we must sell and book near to lower band of channel as days passes...

Trend reversal only can be identified or confirmed if prices breaks upper band of channel with high volume and remain up for 3 consecutive days.

ADX/DMI,ELLIOT TRIGGER/JTI and PTI all showing bearishness. ..

so be carefull on longs...It has been adviced to sell on high...

Best of Luck..



Second Message

march is a time for the solar eclipse ,this time , eclipse starts from india .One can see the paths .Astrologically best to remain short this week especially approaching this date in the stock markets . Luck to all .We are in for a huge downside soon .Watch it. Stay short or hedged on your portfolio .


So My friends decide yourself which is the exact reason for a fall, Technical, Exclipse , both or YEN.

Disclosure & Disclaimer as mentioned earlier.

Relief Rally - chance to escape

As mentioned in my last post on Saturday, Nifty had not only rushed but sprinted towards 3650. Even this kind of blood bath was not expected to be very honest.
Now the rally going on from morning can be a classical trap or an escape to freedom, depending upon your action. Unless Nifty sustains above 3680 for two days on closing basis, there is still more Red to come.
With global issues hovering around, no technical or fundamentals holds good. Stay away or strictly trade for intra day (if you are Die Hard trader), you never know what will happen tomorrow.
Please don’t convert your short term losses to long term investment. Buying near 52 weeks high in falling market for long term is a sure fire way of blowing your money for the sake of your love for Fundamentals. Fundamentals are dynamic and they do changes.

Nifty Fifty - Candlestick & Swing Trading lessons soon

Nifty is rushing towards 3650. Will it take turn or we will C 3250 soon?

Lets watch after a holi break.

Market has supplied lot of Red , bring on Green

Enjoy Holi


Soon we will start Tech Analysis lessons ,focusing on Candlestick & Swing Trading.

Post Budget - picks

Sugar stocks looking good, particularly Balrampu Chini.
Also Suzlon can be considered for decent returns.

Disclosure & disclaimer : same as prev post

Pre - budget Euphoria

From the picks mentioned in December, baring Hotel leela & Varun Shipping all have gained substantially. Both are at the same price and those who have purchased can hold it for 20% gain hereon.

Now the time has come to revamp the portfolio according to your basic nature. Please don’t try to go against your nature as it can prove fatal. No need to compete with your neighbors.
Next few days might be too volatile and I feel one should take advantage of Pre-Budget Rally & book at least 50% of their holdings which are in profits and avoid going for punters scripts. Buying should be done when Nifty will be below 4000.



RNRL can be added add around Rs.25 - 26 and more if it goes back to Rs.19.

IFCI, again a speculative buy like Teledata, for target of 35+.

Teledata, which was earlier recommended in December, can be sold and wait for demerger to happen. If the management stands the test, then it can be another great stock in your portfolio. Now sell and watch.

Short term –
To take advantage of Pre-budget Rally, Buy

Script - Target Sloss

MTNL – 162 144
Reliance - 1450 1385
HLL - 218 199
Cipla - 260 240





Disclosure : I may have position or maybe trading in above said stocks for myself/ family members / friends / Associates.